As symphony has pointed out, the bilge arrangement is different on my boat. Any leak from the raw water pump would go straight in to the bilge under the engine, and wouldn't get anywhere near the saildrive clamping ring. The suggestion by Impavidus would be good if the leak happened consistently, but it doesn't - it's only now and then, which is why I suspected condensation.
I've now made some modifications so that any water emerging from under the aft water tank is collected in a rubber tube which directs it straight in to the bilge under the engine, bypassing the area of the saildrive clamping ring. I've also left the water tank empty this winter, to see whether that affects the amount of condensation (assuming it is condensation!).